نشریه نامه انجمن جمعیت شناسی ایران
پیاپی 30 (پاییز و زمستان 1399)

Application of the agent-based modeling in analyzing population issues has attracted the attention of demographers, and the status of demography in deeper understanding of population trends has been improved. The aim of this paper is to review the evolutionary path of demography from the beginning to the emergence and usage of the agent-based modeling in population studies. The literature review revealed the inability of demographic paradigms in connecting the micro and macro levels as one of the main limitations in the analysis of complicated demographic issues. Today, the agent-based modeling is of particular importance among demographers due to development of mathematics and production of powerful software and processors. Policy making based on the agent-based modeling is an efficient approach with the ability to analyze the micro- and macro-level relationships, increaseing the likelihood of achieving the goals pursued by macro policies. By reviewing the evolution of different paradigms and expressing the need to use the agent-based modeling approach in the process of demographic analysis, this article reviews and introduces the position of the agent-based modeling with its strengths and weaknesses in comparison with other paradigms. Finally, some suggestions for using the agent-based modeling in the analysis of Iran's demographic issues are presented.

The advent of Covid-19 and its wide dissemination changed the epidemiological and mortality prfile of the world. The subject of this research is the emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic and the need to revise the theories of demographic transitions (demographic transition, epidemiological transition, and health transition). Emergence of this epidemic showed that the infectious-parasitic diseases could spread faster than before, interact with chronic diseases and the aging structure of populations, adapt to the characteristics of the new world, globalization and modernization, and use their conditions for easier, faster and wider dissemination. In this respect, these emerging and re-emerging infectious-parasitic diseases in the new era are more civilized and up-to-date than their counterparts in the past. The emergence of the Covid-19 epidemic and its globalization has created a new trend of mortality and significant demographic, economic, social, cultural and behavioral effects that distinguish it from other stages of the epidemiological transition in the human history. These signs may indicate the entry into a new era of mortality in the post-demographic transition era previously referred to in more recent theoretical expressions of the epidemiological transition: the era of emerging and re-emerging infectious-parasitic diseases.

Construction of life table in real populations needs data on death distribution by age and sex. Incomplete coverage of the data produced by the National Organization for Civil Registration of Iran (NOCRI) does not provide sufficient information to calculate mortality rates and produce a national life table needless of reevaluation and correction. This paper aims to estimate the coverage level of the current death records and to construct the national and provincial Direct Life Tables for the Iranian population. The research method is secondary data analysis and a cross-sectional approach is adopted to analyze the data. The population and death data are taken from the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI) and NOCRI, respectively. The statistical population includes all provinces of Iran in the 2016 census. The results show that the current death registration coverage for men and women is 86% and 75%, respectively, at the national level during 2011-2016. Accordingly, every male and female live birth born in Iran during that period of time is expected to live 72.8 and 74.6 years, respectively if the living standards remain stable. At the provincial level, the province of Sistan and Baluchistan has the lowest coverage level of death registration as well as the lowest life expectancy at birth.

Health is known as a lifestyle and prevention of disease treatment that is affected by the economic, social, political, environmental, and cultural conditions of individuals. Studies show that ethnicities are in different socio-economic conditions that can affect their health. In the present study, data were collected from the survey technique through a structured questionnaire from people aged 60 and over in Urmia, which included 386 elderly Kurds and Turks (226 Turks and 161 Kurds). Data analysis showed that the mean and standard deviation for the nine studied dimensions were 17.83 and 2.18 for Turkish ethnicity and 18.48 and 2.11 for Kurdish ethnicity with a significance level of 0.004, respectively. The results of multivariate analysis showed that ethnicity without control of demographic and economic variables has a positive effect of 0.145 on the lifestyle of the elderly, which increases to 0.182 by controlling this variable  and monthly income and ethnicity (being Kurdish) have the most positive and significant effect on it. Findings showed that socio-demographic and economic conditions make a significant difference in the healthy lifestyle of the two ethnicities. The Kurdish elders have a healthier lifestyle than the Turkish elders, which can indicate a better economic situation of the Kurds compared to the Turks at Urmia.

This descriptive-analytical study aims to investigate the socio-demographic determinants of the quality of life among women aged 15-49 years in Sistan and Baluchestan Province, Iran, using the Pender’s health promotion model on a sample size of 800 cases. The sampling was performed using a multi-stage cluster method, and the data were collected using questionnaires.The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation coefficient, independent t-test, analysis of variance, and multiple linear regression. The results of the regression models revealed that perceived self-efficacy had the highest predictive power for the variable of the quality of life (Beta=0.288). Other factors predicting the quality of life among the women under study included perceived barriers, health-promoting lifestyle, age, number of children, and perceived emotions, respectively. In total, these six variables predicted 32.8% of the changes in women’s quality of life. According to the results of the present study, it can be concluded that the components of the Pender’s health promotion model, including perceived self-efficacy, perceived barriers, and health-promoting lifestyle are suitable for predicting women’s quality of life.

Adoption is one of the ways to experience parenting for infertile couples. Despite the demographic importance of adoption, the social research in Iran has paid little attention to its dimensions so far. The present study uses Grounded Theory methodology and in-depth interview with 15 adoptive mothers in the city of Yazd to explore the normative pressure perceived by adoptive parents in interaction with significant others. The data were analyzed using open, axial and selective coding and presented in the storyline (including 12 main categories and one core category) and paradigm model. According to the findings, the research phenomenon is the “anxiety and sympathy” which is made by causal conditions (Permanent infertility, judgement by significant others and significant value of child to give meaning to the life of adaptive parents). In response to this situation, the adoptive families choose one of following strategies: A) situational reaction strategy and B) standing up to all the problems by wearing iron shoes strategy. These strategies have been activated among adoptive families and consequently they may guide similar families for adoption based on their previous experiences. The findings also indicate that most adaptive parents perceive negative emotions resulting from anxieties that they received from significant others. Prejudices by these significant others, lack of social supports by relatives, concerns about the adopted child’s background are among the most important contexts that shape these concerns.

The household structure in contemporary societies is different from decades ago, and in many countries new forms of household have emerged. This study aimed to investigate changes in household structure over the past 35 years (1984-2018) in Iran. For this purpose, Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) data were analyzed. The findings revealed that the percentage of various types of households (i.e one-person, single-parent and married couples without children) have increased. On the other hand, the share of extended and composite households has declined during the time. Although nuclear households have always been the overwhelming majority of households, their number has decreased in the last decade. The main reasons for this pattern are cultural and religious context and the long-term staying of children at parent’s home. It can be concluded that although the family and household structure have been relatively stable for decades, the process of change has started. However, instead of moving towards becoming an independence Western family model, it has taken on the characteristics of family model of emotional interdependence.

The problem of poverty is very widespread and it is affected by different factors in each society, based on its specific characteristics. In this study, the effect of 12 demographic, economic and social factors on the probability of household impoverishment were examined using a probit regression model, which was predicted by the minimum likelihood method. The sample includes 66038 people and a total of 18809 urban households in Iran. The present study examines the possibility of getting out of poverty by considering two levels of welfare, high and low. Accordingly, the income level for households to get out of poverty is 115 million Rials at the low welfare level and 265 million Rials at the high welfare level. According to the  results of the model, the most important factor in getting out of poverty at the lower welfare level is the income status of the head of household and at the higher welfare level, the proportion of the number of people with income in the household as well as the absolute number of people with income in the household. An increase in the level of education of the head of the household was another factor in getting out of poverty. In addition, increasing the number of educated people in the household has had a considerable effect on escaping poverty, and the probability of becoming poor decreases with an increase in the household size,.

This article seeks to present the importance of age structure changes in unemployment changes. Therefore, by drawing a picture of changes in unemployment in Iran, their impact on changes in age structure is examined. The data is derived from the 1965-2016 Iranian decennial general censuses of population and housing. An attempt has been made to analyze unemployment trends by gender for urban and rural areas using a cross-sectional approach. An examination of unemployment indicators showed an increase in unemployment of women and men in 2006 and 2016. The standardization of the proportion of unemployed people shows that similarity in age distribution and education distribution cannot remove their differences in unemployment in the years when unemployment has increased. This finding holds for women in the whole country and women and men in urban and rural, the only exception being men in the whole country. Therefore, recent changes in unemployment must be attributed to factors other than changes in age structure and education composition such as personal characteristics (marital status and professional skills) as well as managerial problems and the lack of relevance between people's skills and requirements of the labor market.

Sex ratio at birth is naturally 105 males per 100 females but in some countries this ratio has increased through sex selection interventions. The aim of this study is to identify the trend of changes in the sex ratio at birth in Iran and the contexts and factors affecting it. Using data from the National Organization for Civil Registration and the documentary method, the context and factors affecting changes in the sex ratio at birth were studied. According to the findings, although the sex ratio of births in Iran is currently in the normal range, but in at least four provinces this ratio is out of the normal range and has increased, suggesting an increase in the number of boys compared to girls. Male preference in Iran is a persistent cultural trait that leads some parents to son preference and eliminates girls. Despite such a cultural problem, the health system allows parents to access the means of sex selection. In addition to being a violation of the right to life for women, continuation of this trend can have negative social consequences such as marriage problems, violence and prostitution. Therefore, it is necessary to pay enough attention to it and think of measures to prevent it.

Most of the research concerned with the role of pull and push factors in migration, have often employed the positivist and quantitative approach, usually ignoring the mental interpretations of migrants towards the pull and push factors of origin and destination. This study used the qualitative method and the sample size comprised of 23 individuals who were selected by theoretical sampling. Interviews were analyzed using the conventional content analysis technique. According to the participants' point of view, factors related to economy, livelihood and job were the main reasons to migrate from suburbs to the capital city. However, after migrating and settling in the destination, various factors may become pull or push factors compared, which have little relationship with the economic theories of migration. The above-mentioned changes can be explained by the way of life in the community and society, or in other words, living in a small and micro-scale social environment as well as living in metropolises. As a general conclusion, it can be expressed that the pull and push factors of a place do not relate only to the condition of the place per se, rather they are in connection with both the other place and in a mechanism of comparison that will be formed in the individual's mind.

Immigrants face social security challenges after entering Iran. The purpose of this study is to investigate the challenges of immigrants and citizens of foreign countries regarding social security. The research method was qualitative and the study population were citizens of foreign countries visiting the Bureau of Social Security of West of Greater Tehran. The research sample was selected by "purposeful" and "theoretical" methods and the theoretical saturation was obtained after interviewing 50 persons. The data analysis resulted in extracting 425 primary codes, 78 sub-categories and 14 main categories. The central phenomenon is the "poverty of knowledge about laws and services." The causal conditions governing the central phenomenon are "deprivation of labor rights, weakness of job status and ambiguity in the status quo." The existing areas include "heterogeneity in the provision of insurance services, weak financial means of immigrants and tightening of immigration law”, which influence the central phenomenon through the intervening conditions of “poor performance of social security, sense of inferiority and negative self-concept about citizenship”. The strategies adopted by citizens of foreign countries are “equivalent communications and actions and the policy of survival security”. The results show that paying attention to the performance of the relevant organizations in eliminating discrimination against immigrants and providing knowledge packages to raise their awareness of social security rights and regulations can solve some of their challenges.